{ "ok": true, "doi": "10.46243/jst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47", "doi_display": "10.46243/jst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47", "doi_url": "https://doi.org/10.46243/jst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47", "state": "registered", "url": "https://www.jst.org.in/index.php/pub/article/view/341", "title": "Spread of COVID-19 in India: A Mathematical Model", "version": 2, "registered_via": "crossref", "prefix": { "prefix": "10.46243", "status": "live" }, "registrant": { "name": "Longman Publishers", "kind": "publisher", "country": "India" }, "reserved_at": null, "registered_at": "2026-09-29 22:00:22", "updated_at": "2026-09-29 23:59:41", "withdrawn_at": null, "withdrawn_reason": null, "record": { "format": "smartscholars-doi-metadata/1.0", "doi": "10.46243/jst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47", "referent": "Creation", "type": "JournalArticle", "structural_type": "Digital", "modes": [ "Visual" ], "characters": [ "Language" ], "titles": [ { "value": "Spread of COVID-19 in India: A Mathematical Model", "type": "PrincipalTitle", "lang": "en" } ], "identifiers": [ { "type": "DOI", "value": "10.46243/jst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47" } ], "agents": [ { "role": "author", "name": { "given": "", "family": "Sudipto Roy" }, "sequence": "first", "identifiers": [ { "type": "ORCID", "value": "0000-0002-8811-2511", "verified": false } ] }, { "role": "author", "name": { "given": "", "family": "Kankana Roy Bhattacharya" }, "sequence": "additional" }, { "role": "publisher", "name": { "org": "Longman Publishers" } } ], "dates": { "published": "2020-04-29", "date_type": "PublicationDate", "online": "2020-04-29" }, "language": "en", "container": { "type": "Journal", "titles": [ { "value": "Journal of Science & Technology", "type": "PrincipalTitle" } ], "identifiers": [ { "type": "ISSN", "value": "2456-5660", "medium": "electronic" } ], "volume": "5", "issue": "3", "pages": { "first": "41", "last": "47" } }, "links": [ { "url": "https://www.jst.org.in/index.php/pub/article/view/341", "return_type": "text/html", "primary": true }, { "url": "https://www.jst.org.in/index.php/pub/article/download/341/303", "purpose": "text-mining", "return_type": "application/pdf" }, { "url": "https://www.jst.org.in/index.php/pub/article/download/341/3305", "purpose": "text-mining", "return_type": "application/xml" } ], "abstract": { "value": "The COVID-19 pandemic has been the greatest threat to human lives of the entire world since January 2020. In the present article, we discuss a mathematical model regarding the spread of COVID-19 in India. This model is aimed at finding the nature of time dependence of the number of symptomatic patients, officially recorded in the country, during the period from 01 March 2020 to 23 April 2020. The number of persons infected with the coronavirus disease, as declared by the government on a regular basis, is most probably the number of patients who have experienced the symptoms of the disease. The present study is based on a differential equation that has been formed here to find how the number of asymptomatic patients increases with time. The number of symptomatic patients has been estimated from its solution. The nature of its time evolution is found to be quite consistent with the data obtained from government records, for a certain set of parameter values of the model. Using this particular set, we have discussed the impact of imposition of a countrywide lockdown and its withdrawal.", "lang": "en" }, "license": { "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0", "start": "2020-04-29", "applies_to": "vor" }, "references": [ { "key": "ref1", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7", "unstructured": "P. Zhou et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 579, 270–273, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7 Medline" }, { "key": "ref2", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3", "unstructured": "F. Wu et al. A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China. Nature 579, 265–269 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3 Medline" }, { "key": "ref3", "doi": "10.1038/s41564-020-0695-z", "unstructured": "A. E. Gorbalenya et al. Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: The species and its viruses–a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group. Nat. Microbiol.,2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-0695-z" }, { "key": "ref4", "unstructured": "Website of the World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019" }, { "key": "ref5", "unstructured": "COVID-19 Dashboard by the Centre for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" }, { "key": "ref6", "doi": "10.1056/nejmoa2001017", "unstructured": "N. Zhu et al. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine, 382:727-733, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001017" }, { "key": "ref7", "doi": "10.1056/nejmoa2001316", "unstructured": "Qun Li et al. Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia. New England Journal of Medicine, 382:1199-207, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316" }, { "key": "ref8", "doi": "10.1007/s11684-020-0767-8", "unstructured": "M. Zhou, X. Zhang & J. Qu, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a clinical update. Front. Med., 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11684-020-0767-8" }, { "key": "ref9", "doi": "10.1038/s41586-020-2223-y", "unstructured": "Z. Jin, X. Du, & Y. Xu et al. Structure of M pro from COVID-19 virus and discovery of its inhibitors. Nature, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2223-y" }, { "key": "ref10", "doi": "10.1038/nrmicro.2016.81", "unstructured": "E. de Wit et al., SARS and MERS: recent insights into emerging corona viruses. Nature Review s Microbiology 14, 523-534, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2016.81" }, { "key": "ref11", "doi": "10.14293/s2199-1006.1.sor-uncat.atfigj.v1.rpnimv", "unstructured": "P. Zhou et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature, 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2012-7" }, { "key": "ref12", "unstructured": "Website of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Govt. of India. https://www.mohfw.gov.in/" }, { "key": "ref13", "doi": "10.4103/ijmr.ijmr_519_20", "unstructured": "P. Chatterjee et al. The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic: A review of the current evidence. Indian Journal of Medical Research (Ahead of Print), 2020. https://doi.org/10.4103/ijmr.IJMR_519_20" }, { "key": "ref14", "doi": "10.13140/rg.2.2.11427.81444", "unstructured": "M. K. Arti and K. Bhatnagar. Modeling and Predictions for COVID 19 Spread in India (Preprint from www.researchgate.net), 2020. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.11427.81444" }, { "key": "ref15", "unstructured": "M. R. Bhatnagar. COVID-19: Mathem atical Modeling and Predictions, 2020. Online available at: http://web.iitd.ac.in/~manav/COVID.pdf" }, { "key": "ref16", "unstructured": "Website of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). https://icmr.nic.in/content/covid-19" } ], "record": { "registrant": "Longman Publishers", "registered": "2020-04-29", "updated": "2026-09-17", "issue_number": 1, "source": "crossref-api", "source_agency": "Crossref (member 25296)" } }, "record_sha256": "c44da4bd84a5287d97bd5401c311c63ee0eb5971142392d57f3229c55d763cde", "handle": { "synced_at": "2026-10-01 18:12:17", "url": "https://www.jst.org.in/index.php/pub/article/view/341" }, "links": { "record_page": "https://registry.smartscholars.in/record.php?doi=10.46243%2Fjst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47", "system_metadata": "https://registry.smartscholars.in/resolve.php?doi=10.46243%2Fjst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47&as=system", "history": "https://registry.smartscholars.in/api.php?action=history&doi=10.46243%2Fjst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47", "kernel_xml": "https://registry.smartscholars.in/resolve.php?doi=10.46243%2Fjst.2020.v5.i3.pp41-47&as=xml" } }